University of Wolverhampton predicts 45 medals for Team GB at Rio 2016
17 October 2012
Researchers at the University of Wolverhampton have predicted Team GB could win 45 medals at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games, having used the same formula three years ago to predict a medal haul of 63 for Britain at the London 2012 Olympic Games - just two under the actual number of 65.
Scientists made the prediction using a mathematical formula based on the average number of medals that Britain has earned in the past and the likelihood of podium success of host and post-host countries.
The formula, developed by researchers at the University of Wolverhampton, predicts that the host nation's odds of winning medals will more than double.
The model suggests that having the home advantage should bring in 2.05 medals for every single medal usually won.
The historical average of British medals is 31, and when multiplied by 2.05 the medal haul for 2012 was predicted as 63.5.
The authors, whose findings are published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, predict that the odds of a nation winning more medals immediately after hosting the Olympic Games increase by a ratio of 1 to 1.46.
Therefore, if the average medal tally of 31 was increased by this ratio, Team GB should win 45 medals at Rio 2016.
Professor Alan Nevill, from the University of Wolverhampton said: "This of course assumes that history will repeat itself and that the drop-off in medals won, seen with other hosting nations, will be mirrored by Team GB in Rio."
The model is created from the medal tallies of all countries that have hosted the Games since the Second World War.
The approach, known as logit regression, takes into account the number of medals achieved before, during and after hosting the Games.
The researchers also found that objective and subjectively judged sports had different outcomes.
They found that more medals were gained in subjectively judge sports than they were in objectively judged ones.
Professor Alan Nevill said: "Anecdotal evidence suggests that the crowd had a positive effect on athletes, but also, crowds appear to have had an important effect on influencing officials to favour the home based performers."
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Great job Liverpool. Light night killed.
Light night Liverpool at fact, burning up http://instagram.com/p/ZbUw-2kWRw/